Fate of NPAs Likely To Worsen in the Initial Six Months of 2021

Asset quality of banks had seen a slight improvement in the second of 2020; however, as per a survey conducted, it is likely to decline in the initial six months of 2021. The survey was executed on 20 banks, comprising the private sector, public sector, and foreign banks, constituting around 59% of the banking industry. FICCI-IBA conducted the 12th round of bankers’ survey for the period between July and December 2020.

RBI’s Financial Stability Report released this year indicates that banks’ gross NPAs might increase to 13.5% within September 2021. Most of the respondent bankers have identified MSME, aviation and restaurants, tourism and hospitality as the high NPA risk sectors in the survey’s current round.

In the current round of the survey, around 78% of the participating state-run banks mentioned the decline in NPA levels. Nevertheless, with respect to outlook, nearly 68% of the respondent bankers anticipate the NPA levels to be more than 10% in the initial half of 2021. About 37% of the respondents anticipate NPA levels to increase by 12%.

About 55% of the respondents believe that NPAs will increase considerably in the tourism and hospitality sector. On the other hand, the remaining 45% anticipated that NPAs could increase reasonably in this sector.

89% of the respondents anticipate that the restaurant sector might witness an increase in NPAs; however, only 26% anticipate NPAs to increase significantly in this segment. MSME sector has been reported as another high NPA risk sector in the current round of the survey, with about 84% of the respondents anticipating an increase in NPAs in this sector. 

The survey has also revealed that there has been a considerable increase in one-time restructuring requests concerning MSMEs. About 85% of the respondent banks have seen an increase in restructuring requests of advances than 39% in the last round. 

Concerning the pharma sector, 45 % of the respondents have cited a rise in long-term loans compared to 29% in the survey’s previous round. Apart from pharma, prolonged credit demand has been increasing for sectors such as food processing and infrastructure.

For any clarifications/feedback on the topic, please contact the writer at bhavana.pn@cleartax.in

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